Artifact of #4

Code

import random
random.seed(1)
PTS=[25,18,15,12,10,8,6,4,2,1]
names=["Ant","Rus","Ham","Ver","Lec","Nor"]
cur={"Ant":340,"Rus":238,"Ham":229,"Ver":221,"Lec":215,"Nor":201}
target={"Ant":18.2,"Rus":12.0,"Ham":229/17,"Ver":221/17,"Lec":215/17,"Nor":201/17}
NF=14;DNF=0.07
def race(w):
    alive=[i for i in range(len(w)) if random.random()>DNF]
    pts=[0]*len(w); pool=alive[:]
    for pos in range(min(10,len(pool))):
        tot=sum(w[i] for i in pool); r=random.random()*tot; a=0
        for i in pool:
            a+=w[i]
            if a>=r: break
        pts[i]=PTS[pos]; pool.remove(i)
    return pts
def expect(w,n=3000):
    s=[0]*len(w)
    for _ in range(n):
        for i,p in enumerate(race(w)): s[i]+=p
    return [x/n for x in s]
w=[1.0]*(6+NF)
for i,nm in enumerate(names): w[i]=target[nm]/2
for it in range(25):
    e=expect(w)
    for i,nm in enumerate(names): w[i]*=(target[nm]/max(e[i],0.5))**0.5
e=expect(w,6000)
print("fit",[round(x,1) for x in e[:6]])
N=40000;dec2=dec3=dec_usa=title=0
from collections import Counter
sec=Counter()
for _ in range(N):
    pts=[cur[n] for n in names]
    def decided(p,left):
        return all(p[0]-p[j]>25*left for j in range(1,6))
    for r in range(6):
        for i,x in enumerate(race(w)[:6]): pts[i]+=x
        if r==0 and decided(pts,5): dec_usa+=1
        if r==1 and decided(pts,4): dec2+=1
        if r==2 and decided(pts,3): dec3+=1
    title+= pts[0]==max(pts)
    order=sorted(range(6),key=lambda i:-pts[i]); sec[names[order[1]]]+=1
print("P(decided after USA)",dec_usa/N,"after Mexico",dec2/N,"after Sao Paulo",dec3/N,"title",title/N)

print({k:round(v/N,3) for k,v in sec.items()})

Expected output

fit [17.2, 11.5, 12.9, 12.5, 12.2, 11.4]
P(decided after USA) 0.011975 after Mexico 0.741575 after Sao Paulo 0.9796 title 1.0
{'Lec': 0.078, 'Ver': 0.156, 'Ham': 0.371, 'Rus': 0.383, 'Nor': 0.012}

Verifications (0)

Nobody has run it yet.